Ghost Ships 2.0: How Russia's Shadow Fleet Is Trying to Outsmart Sanctions

Some ships don't want to be found. And some were never meant to sail again.

Rusting oil tankers — some long past their expiry date — are quietly returning to sea. Repainted, renamed, and reflagged, they now make up Russia's growing shadow fleet: an armada tasked with moving sanctioned crude to buyers across the globe.

These aren't pirate ships. They're often legally owned and lightly disguised — but they operate on the margins. Turning off transponders, forging paperwork, and sailing without insurance, they quietly defy one of the most extensive sanctions regimes in modern history.

But this isn't just a story about old ships and clever evasions. It's evolved into something far more dangerous: hybrid warfare disguised as commerce.

The Wise Honest Was Just the Beginning

In 2019, a North Korean cargo ship named the Wise Honest was seized in Indonesian waters. Officially, it was carrying coal. Unofficially, it was part of a sanctions-busting operation that moved millions of dollars' worth of goods in violation of UN and U.S. restrictions.

The ship had changed flags, spoofed documentation, and disabled its tracking systems — classic tactics of what we now call the "shadow fleet." Its seizure made headlines not because of what it carried, but because of what it revealed: a global compliance blind spot.

Port handlers, freight brokers, customs agents — all had touched the ship's journey. None had asked the right questions.

From North Korea to Russia: A New Sanctions Battlefield

Today, it's Russia that's writing the playbook on industrial-scale sanctions evasion.

Following sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil exports have shifted from transparency to opacity. The numbers tell the story: Russia generated $192 billion in oil revenues in 2024 despite Western restrictions, with the shadow fleet becoming increasingly central to these operations.

By March 2025, the scale was staggering:

• 380 vessels exported Russian crude oil and oil products in a single month

• 164 of these were 'shadow' tankers (43% of the fleet)

• 53% of total volumes now move via shadow operations

• 36% of shadow tankers are over 20 years old, with the oldest exceeding 30 years

Russia's revenues from seaborne crude oil surged 14% month-on-month to €212 million per day in March 2025, while export volumes jumped 24%.

🔻 How a Ghost Ship Disappears:

• AIS Spoofing: Ships don't just turn off their transponders—they broadcast false locations. Imagine a ship physically in the Black Sea but telling the world it's docked in Dubai.

• Shell Ownership: Paper trails obscure real ownership through webs of companies in Dubai, Cyprus, and other permissive jurisdictions.

• STS Transfers: Oil is moved ship-to-ship at sea to disguise origin—often in international waters off Greece, Malaysia, or Singapore.

• Flag Hopping: Frequent changes to open-registry flags, with Panama and Liberia among the preferred registries.

From Smuggling Oil to Sabotage: The New Threat

The shadow fleet's mission has expanded beyond sanctions evasion. In December 2024, the oil tanker Eagle S, suspected to be part of Russia's shadow fleet, was detained by Finnish authorities after the Estlink 2 power cable—a critical electricity link between Finland and Estonia—was severed.

This wasn't an isolated incident. European officials suspect similar hybrid warfare tactics in the severing of two submarine telecommunication cables in November 2024: the BCS East-West Interlink cable between Lithuania and Sweden, and the C-Lion1 cable connecting Finland and Germany.

Russia is demonstrating a new form of gray zone warfare—using commercial vessels to conduct sensitive military missions while sustaining its declining economy. These aging tankers, with obscured ownership and manipulated electronic signatures, represent what analysts call a crude but effective "fleet in being."

The Global Trade Web: Who's Really Buying?

Despite sanctions, Russian oil finds eager buyers:

• China and India remain the largest customers

• Turkey and Brazil continue significant imports

• EU countries including Hungary and Slovakia still receive Russian energy

This isn't happening in isolation. Every barrel moved requires a complex web of intermediaries—freight forwarders, port operators, insurers, and financial institutions. Many operate unknowingly, but the compliance risk is real and growing.

Why It Matters: The Hidden Risk in Global Trade

Sanctions exposure doesn't just sit with banks or governments. It now extends deep into the supply chain.

If you're a:

• Freight forwarder

• Port operator

• Warehouse manager

• Customs agent

• Insurance provider

...you could be unknowingly involved in sanctions evasion simply by handling paperwork, clearing a shipment, or fueling a flagged vessel.

And that risk isn't theoretical. Enforcement actions have already reached beyond shipping companies to include financial institutions, fuel suppliers, and logistics firms — some of them small businesses with no compliance teams.

Red Flags to Watch For

🟠 Vessels that:

• Routinely disable AIS (tracking) systems or broadcast false positions

• Use unusual or newly created shell entities

• Dock at high-risk transshipment points (waters off Greece, UAE, Malaysia)

• Change flag states frequently or use obscure registries

• Show signs of recent repainting or renaming

• Are over 15-20 years old but recently returned to service

🟠 Clients that:

• Request indirect shipping routes without clear commercial justification

• Refuse to provide end-user or ultimate cargo destination details

• Operate via informal payment channels or cryptocurrency

• Insist on cash transactions or unusual payment timing

• Have connections to high-risk jurisdictions (Russia, Iran, North Korea)

What's Coming Next

The response is escalating beyond traditional sanctions:

• Maritime Interdiction: Following Nordic countries' lead, more nations are detaining suspected shadow fleet vessels for investigation

• Enhanced Satellite Tracking: New technologies are making AIS spoofing increasingly difficult to maintain

• Coordinated Naval Operations: The U.S. Coast Guard and allied maritime forces are developing new task forces specifically targeting illicit shipping

• Expanded EU Regulations: Proposed rules would target shadow fleet insurers and service providers directly

Anqa's Take: Compliance Without the Enterprise Budget

This isn't just a shipping problem—it's a compliance challenge that touches every part of global trade. The shadow fleet's evolution from sanctions evasion to hybrid warfare means the stakes have never been higher.

Whether you're a freight broker, fintech, or customs consultant, our platform lets you: 

• Screen names, vessels, and counterparties in real time

• Stay updated with daily watchlist changes from OFAC, UN, EU, and more

• Flag high-risk patterns — including ship names, flag histories, and route irregularities 

New to sanctions compliance? We've got you covered. Check out our free Gatekeepers sanctions training course — it's one of 6 free financial compliance courses we offer, complete with certificates. Perfect for getting your team up to speed on the fundamentals.

Learn more about our sanctions screening here

Final Word

The Wise Honest showed the world how a single ghost ship could expose a network of compliance failures. Russia's shadow fleet has scaled that risk to an industrial level—and weaponized it.

The question isn't just "Are you doing business with a sanctioned entity?" It's "Are you sure you'd even know if you were? And could that vessel be carrying more than just cargo?"

Because the shadow fleet isn't going away. But with the right tools, you can stop sailing blind.

Sources:

• Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis

• Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) monthly reports

• Finnish authorities' investigation reports

• Maritime intelligence data